Monday, May 10, 2004

The Planktos Blog

This is the blog for The Planktos www.planktos.com. We work to develop solutions to help the worlds oceans endure and recover from the ravages of global climate change.

This blog is open for comments by readers. Welcome all well mannered and intentioned commentary.

Below is a brief essay that describes in part what we do.


Oceans in Peril from Rising Atmospheric CO2
(April 2004 The Planktos Foundation)

The global community worries about global warming or more rightly global climate change. What we have not recognized is that "global warming" is likely the last and least effect that we will experience as part of global climate change. Today, a hundred years before the predicted few degrees of warming becomes palpable vast changes to the Earth's ecosystems will have wrought monumental changes in the way we humans live and behave on and with this small blue planet. Unlike Global Warming these changes are not some debatable future scenario they are upon us today. The most significant changes we see today are in the world’s oceans. The ocean environment is in real peril now. Why is this?

The cause of this change and warming is known to be greenhouse gases, primarily CO2, that are accumulating in our atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil fuel. We know for certain that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen, since the dawn of the fossil fueled industrial age 150 years ago, from roughly 250ppm to 380ppm. We can predict and project the continued rise of CO2 to levels in the very near future beyond 500ppm and reaching even beyond 1000ppm over the next century or two.

The first and most dramatic effects of 150 years of rising CO2 are seen in eco-systems that are part of and responsive to powerful feedback systems. Delicately balanced eco-systems respond to the slightest shift that we apply with tremendous leverage. The first evidence of such a feedback eco-system couple is seen in the desert - ocean system. It is a remarkable part of the natural balance of our planet that the wettest and driest eco-systems on this planet are so intimately intertwined. Here is how it works as we now understand as a result of the massive experiment we have been conducting in altering those two eco-systems by raising the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere by 50%. Had this massive atmospheric enrichment experiment called fossil fuel burning not occurred we might not have seen the desert and ocean link.

We know plants absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and give back oxygen. They do this the same way all life on the planet exchanges gases with the air. They have to expose wet tissues to the air where the gas exchange takes place. We humans do this by opening our lungs and drawing in air to expose it to the wet tissues in our bodies. Plants do this by open cells on their leaves called stomata and allowing the air to exchange gases with wet tissues inside the leaf. We all pay for our oxygen CO2 exchange with molecules of water that evaporate from those wet tissues. We can see this water when we exhale into cold air and see our breath form a cloud. Plants are no different than us in that the majority of water lost is via breathing.

For plants that have access to a relative abundance of water they can afford to trade water for CO2. For desert and dry land plants it is a very different story. Desert plants have evolved to have short fast life cycles so that they can live their lives in the short period that water is available. They trade precious water with the air for the CO2 they need to use in photosynthesis. Remember we are all "carbon" based life forms on this planet. All of that carbon comes from CO2 that is changed via the photosynthesis of plants which combine it with nutrients and minerals from the soil into what we animals find delicious and nutritious.

TODAY we see that the air has 50% more CO2 than it did a mere hundred years ago. Desert and dry land plants are very happy about this. They now obtain the CO2 they need at far less expense in terms of water loss. This preserves their water supply for many days, they grow larger, and they produce more foliage and more viable seeds. For the deserts and dry lands of earth this higher CO2 concentration in the air is a fantastic bounty and we see those deserts and dry lands of the Earth becoming greener over greater areas and for longer periods each year. We know that the best way to reduce the loss of topsoil and dust from blowing from the land is to better cover the land with vegetation. To be certain the dry lands and deserts still dry out and become dusty deserts but that dry dusty period becomes smaller and for a shorter time each year. This may be good news for deserts but there is a price to be paid. There is indisputable quantitative data showing dramatically reduced dust over the worlds oceans.

Enter the relationship of the deserts and dry lands with the oceans. We know that the ocean plants, phytoplankton, like their desert cousins have evolved a short life cycle. They live in an abundance of water but live in a desert of with regard to the nutrients and minerals that plants on earth take from the soil. So where do ocean plants get these nutrients and minerals... As it happens they get these from the land and the process of erosion that slowly wears down the earth and washes or blows it into the oceans. However some very critical mineral nutrients do not last long in the ocean ecosystem as being rather insoluble they dissolve slowly and sink quickly to the bottom. Chief in importance of these trace minerals required for photosynthesis and life on this planet is iron. Iron acts like a catalyst in photosynthesis with a very tiny amount being needed to empower a very great amount of photosynthesis. Evolution has adapted ocean plants to make use of iron in concentrations almost too small for us to measure.

So where do ocean plants obtain their iron? They obtain it from the deserts of the earth where that abundant red dust is red because of the iron it contains. The dust that blows from the deserts feed the ocean plants the tiny amounts of iron they need to survive and flourish. When these dust storms pass episodically over the oceans they dip down here and there in a random fashion and deliver the precious iron to the waiting ocean plants. As this is a rare and somewhat unpredictable event ocean plants have evolved to grow at much reduced level of productivity as their normal life. But if additional iron arrives via a fortuitous dust storm the have the capacity to bloom like the desert after a spring rain and bloom they do.

In a few short days a deep blue ocean can turn into a green pea soup as the ocean plants rush to make use of every last atom of iron before it sinks into the abyss. Along with this dusty iron stimulated bloom comes a growth of the entire food chain as tiny krill and other zooplankton rise to the dinner table and feed on the temporary bounty. The bloom is temporary as the other macro-nutrients that the plants need is in limited abundance as well and as it becomes exhausted like a wet spring in the desert the ocean bloom rapidly comes to an end. This particular patch of ocean water will not be able to bloom again until the slow mixing of the ocean replenishes the water with the dissolved macro-nutrients. This is natures way and it keeps our oceans rather more blue than green.

It is this delicate system that is now staggeringly out of balance due to rising CO2 in the atmosphere. It is a feedback system that is now spinning up like a giant typhoon gaining strength from the weakness of the oceans that threatens to change this planet in ways the likes of which our earthbound and earth focused climate modelers have never dreamed, and it is happening faster than we know.

There is now evidence that is unchallengeable that shows atmospheric CO2 is 50% higher than it was 150 years ago. There is correspondingly quantitative evidence showing the dramatic greening of dry and desert regions and the reduction of dust that is blowing from these regions over and onto the worlds oceans. We also know from studies from satellites and ships that the baseline productivity of the world’s great oceans is now stunningly reduced. The major oceans like the Pacific, Atlantic, and Southern oceans are 10-30% lower in productivity of ocean plants than they were a mere 25 years ago. If this rate of decline continues the oceans will become the deserts of this planet long before we humans notice a little warming and switch to a lighter jacket or sweater when we go out.

What is worse is that the amount of CO2 the now diminished oceans are already failing to remove from our atmosphere, remember the oceans cover over 70% of this blue planet. This is the power of a feedback system. As the oceans become deserts our atmosphere is losing the most powerful CO2 removal mechanism on the planet. This will result in a rise of atmospheric CO2 at a far greater rate than the earth bound atmospheric scientists have predicted. This is already apparent in the actual rates of rising CO2 concentration that are reported as being mysteriously faster than the models have predicted.

But this is not a story of inevitable doom and gloom. We can do something about this. As it happens the concentration of iron in the ocean on average is but a few parts per trillion. This number 1/ 1,000,000,000,000 is incredibly small and offers the opportunity for a form of eco-judo to be practiced. We know that raising the concentration of iron in a patch of ocean by only a few additional tens of parts per trillion can stimulate an ocean bloom. We also know that iron is super abundant on this earth in the form of iron ore which is indeed the same form of iron Mother Nature dusts her oceans with. With a very small effort relative to what we earthlings spend on countless luxuries we can replenish the dust that the oceans are dying for. In the bargain we will scrub the CO2 that we spew from our tailpipes and power plants from the air using the free sunlight energy, we will replenish the food chain of the ocean that all ocean life and those of us who eat fish from the sea depend on, and we be able to do this in an affordable safe manner. No small effort is required but the effort is not so large that we cannot succeed in a timely fashion. If we start now we may be able to save the oceans and ourselves.


Planktos Inc
Foster City, CA
www.planktos.com

28 comments:

Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

Fertilising the sea could combat global warming
Iron soaks up carbon in Southern Ocean trial.
22 April 2004 QUIRIN SCHIERMEIER

This story is from the news section of The Journal Nature

Dumping iron sulphate in the ocean to cause plankton blooms might not seem an eco-friendly way to tackle global warming. But, according to the most extended trial of the technique so far, it could prove an effective one.

The outcome of the trial in the Southern Ocean, which surrounds Antarctica, was published in last week's Science. It suggests that each atom of iron added to the sea could pull between 10,000 and 100,000 atoms of carbon out of the atmosphere by encouraging plankton growth, which captures carbon and sinks it deep towards the ocean floor.

If successfully scaled up, such 'iron fertilization' of the sea could make a real dent in the high level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which is causing global warming. Some researchers estimate that using the technique in the Southern Ocean alone could absorb 15% of carbon dioxide build-up. But ecologists caution that the technique could damage marine ecosystems in ways yet to be established.

The findings have fuelled expectations that ocean fertilization could provide an environmentally friendly technique for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. "It is a worthy endeavour to mitigate future global warming," says Russ George, chief scientist of the California-based Planktos Foundation, a non-profit organization supported by the Canadian rock star Neil Young, which promotes large-scale iron fertilization.
Iron is essential for plant growth. Most of it reaches the oceans through winds carrying eroded, iron-rich soils from dry areas on land. But changes in climate and vegetation since the end of the last glacial period are believed to have diminished the iron supply to the ocean - reducing the growth of plankton, which naturally absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Advocates of the technique argue that they would simply be restoring iron in the ocean to its previous level.
To read the full story in Nature and in Science click the links below.

This story is from the news section of the Journal Nature April 22, 2004

This story also derives from the Journal Science April 16, 2004

Anonymous said...

It seems clear to me that the focus on "global warming" is a perfectly controlled spin job by those who would have us believe that our energy burning ways have little or no impact on the planet. Global warming at worst will be barely palpable before the end of this century and even that point is hotly debated, even outright rejected by our president. What better way to convince the masses that this is a topic to which the experts can't agree so why bother with it. All the while the real and present danger coming from rising CO2 is happening in that most favourite of all parts of this planet we most love to ignore, the oceans. As the recent article in Science shows the oceans are absorbing most of mans CO2 emissions, if you add the 48% noted in the Science paper which is pure chemistry to the portion that is sequestered via ocean plants one gets way over 50%.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/apscience_story.asp?category=1501&slug=Ocean%20Carbon%20Dioxide

The problem is the ocean plants are dying rapidly and this is also due to rising atmospheric CO2, not just the ones who find it hard in the slightly more acidic ocean water and can't form shells, ALL OF THEM.... The cause is the fact that the oceans rely on dust in the wind to provide critical micro or really nano-nutrients primarily iron. As CO2 has risen from 250ppm to 380ppm over the last century we are seeing a huge benefit to dry land plants, you know the ones that live on soils that become dry and dusty... that dust is the lifeline between earth and water on this blue planet. Since the blue part of the planet is 70+% which part might we think is most in danger. It is comfortable to think of our own terrestrial habitat as being the most important and delicate but that is simply not the case.

Here is a bit sent to the editor of Nature pertaining to a story about the decline in ocean productivity in the North Atlantic and a time of abundance there. My view is that this is a clear example that we are all very dependent on dust in the wind and how high CO2 is effectively eliminating that dust.



Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea
GRÉGORY BEAUGRAND, KEITH M. BRANDER, J. ALISTAIR LINDLEY, SAMI SOUISSI & PHILIP C. REID
Nature 426, 661–664 (2003); doi:10.1038/nature02164
http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v426/n6967/abs/nature02164_fs.html

-------

The authors present outstanding data and interpretation pertaining to the decline in fish and plankton in the North Atlantic though I believe they missed the most powerful underlying cause of this decline. Long term data from China shows that extraordinary dust events occurred in the 1960's and 70"s coinciding with what is known in ocean science as the Gadoid Outburst.

The Gadoid Outburst in the North Atlantic was a period of time when super abundance of ocean plankton brought on similar abundance of Cod stocks. I propose that the evidence is clear that this was a result of the unusual amount of dust born iron that arrived in the North Atlantic spurring that unusual abundance of ocean plankton. The evidence is clear that the North Atlantic like the North Pacific depend on the dust from Asia as their primary source of iron and related nano-nutrients. That the Mongolia dust was extraordinarily abundant during the Gadoid Outburst is no unrelated coincidence rather it is the most likely explanation.

It is clear that efforts in China to mitigate dust storms and topsoil loss are along with rising CO2 resulting in dramatic reductions of Asian dust reaching the northern oceans of the world and resulting in dire losses of primary productivity.

The dust levels in the 90's were only 25% of those in the 60's!!!

How does it work?...

Current levels of atmospheric CO2 are effectively reducing evapo-transpiration losses of water in dry land plants resulting in a small but critically important addition to effective ground cover on the dry lands of the world including Mongolia.

---------excerpted from --------

The Dust Storm: Historical evolution of Inner Mongolia and the impacts of the climate change.
www.meteohistory.org/2004polling_preprints/ docs/abstracts/tao_abstract.pdf

Gao Tao, Xu Yongfu, Li Haiying, Yu Xiao, and Xiao Shujun

Since 1949, after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, many observatories and meteorological stations have been set up in China. Up to now, it has 2,700 sites for meteorological observation, and 118 of them are situated in I.M. Along with the improvement of instruments and observing conditions, the meteorological records have become more detail and more precise than any other historical times. The dust storms occurred in I.M. in the last four decades (1961-2000) was counted following the Criterion of Sandstorm[3] and the definition of dust storm intensity of I.M.[4]. The dust storm frequencies in two intensity degrees are listed in Table 2, where strong dust storm means its influence radium is more than 60 km and a very strong dust storm (Black Storm) affects more than 100 km in radium.

(Ed Note: the table doesn't reproduce here but the key data from it shows the number of major dust events in the 1960's being 250 and in the 1990's being only 64. A huge decline...)

To confront the serious situation of desertification and frequently occurrence of dust storms, Chinese Government pay much attention to the issue. Huge sum of money has been invited in order to improve the surface environment, control or decrease the speed of desertification process, restore the ecosystem. Also, the Government has taken some sufficient measures and good policies for environmental recovery and protection. Following the nature law to adjust the distribution of water using over the whole region, to return the open up lands for forest and grass, emigration people to some suitable living places from the vulnerable ecological regions. Under the leading of the Chinese Central Government, some plans and policies for ecological system recovery have been taking into actions by Inner Mongolia Local government. There is a hope that the local surface environment might be recovered during the next 10-20 years or even in longer time.

---------------

As one may see from the above data there is a good fit between the very enhanced dust of the 1960's and 70's and the time of abundant productivity in the North Atlantic. Even more important however is the fact that dust mitigation efforts in China have yielded major reductions in dust events in both number and severity since then. Today we are seeing the result of this greatly diminished supply of dust and its micro-nutrients especially iron to the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This lowering of dust sourced micro-nutrients is very likely causing the shifting of phyto-plankton species observed in the North Atlantic to species capable of thriving in low iron oceans, the warmer water phyto-plankton species are well fitted to this role. In addition the reduction of primary ocean productivity and the attendant loss to the ocean CO2 sink is providing a powerful feedback mechanism to global CO2 levels resulting in more rapidly rising global CO2. There are obvious solutions at hand that might economically mitigate this lost productivity in the North Atlantic and North Pacific and that is to restore the iron and other micronutrients that topsoil conservation on land is stealing from our critical ocean ecosystems. This is environmentally safe and will restore lost ocean productivity to recent levels, will help mitigate global climate change, and is easily economical. Further information on this can be found on the web site of The Planktos Foundation. www.planktos.com.


Russ George - Chief Scientist
The Planktos Foundation
www.planktos .com

Brian Cady said...

Restoring the Banks: Debbie MacKenzie and Zooplankton's Deep Daily Dawn Dive.

Over the past decades, as Grand and Georges Bank's fish stocks have fallen, along with zooplankton biomass, satallite photos show phytoplankton biomass to be increased. While at first this seems surprizing, Debbie MacKenzie has explained how this can happen:
In an imaginary pasture, taller grass doesn't mean faster grass growth, if less cows are now grazing the grass.
But with less fish reducing zooplankton biomass, and more phytoplankton to graze, why don't zooplankton levels rebound?
Debbie explains that oceanic zooplankton fill a unique role, accompanying their unique, and previously puzzling deep daily dive from, and nightly return to, the surface, where they feed.
In this way zooplankton ferry needed nutrients from the deep to sunlit surface phytoplankton, which use these nutrients to photosynthesize. With less zooplankton, phytoplankton can not do as much photosynthesizing. This reduces the amount of sunlight energy entering the Banks food chains, so there is less to feed fish, and reduced fish stocks and harvests result.
But why are zooplankton doing less ferrying - why are their numbers and biomass reduced? What is missing that once was there?
Debbie explains that heavy harvesting of fish has actually removed such large amounts of important nutrients from the Banks that the zooplankton have less to ferry, no matter how numerous they are, so the phytoplankton are starving. The only reason there aren't less phytoplankton, instead of more, is that zooplankton are starving even more.
One supporting fact here is the scarcity of nitrogen, phosphorus and iron in oceanic ecosystems.
Phosphorus tends to form solids and precipitate out of aquatic environments; it and nitrogen are major plant nutrients, and nitrogen tends to directly limit Banks productivity.
Iron is very, very rare in deep ocean waters. Because iron is central to enzymes which allow nitrogen re-use, and which catalyze fixation of dissolved nitrogen from air, it may play a key role in the failure of Bank's fish stocks to recover as expected.
If iron is a limiting nutrient on the Banks, then we are very lucky - small amounts of iron could significantly increase Bank's water's iron concentrations, but the amount of nitrogen needed to significantly affect concentrations on the Banks would cost a lot of money, and require enormous amounts of energy to make - nitrogen fertilizer production is very energy intensive.
By allowing bluegreen algae and such to fix nitrogen from the air, replenishing the iron removed by our fish harvesting may trigger a resurgence in the Bank's sealife, and at a very affordable cost. And then again it might not, but because iron replenishment would be affordable, and the research to confirm iron's role here would also be both affordable and safe, we should test it.

Brian Cady

Brian Cady said...

Georges Banks Iron Factoids:
Iron is so scarce on Georges Banks that 3% of what is normally present(156mt) comes in each year within boat fuel(4.8mt).
In contrast, the Gulf of Maine receives 18,500mt each year from its rivers.
Source:
'Trace Metals', Bothner-MH; Gilbert-TR; Bankston-DC
_Georges_Banks_, Backus-RH, editor 1987
Boston, MA, MIT Press :177

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